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home about sinostand culture, politics and business of china stay updated via rss recent posts i have no idea what’s going to happen in china and neither do you announcing my new book: china’s millennials facebook and the timing of entering china why we need to stop sharing global times editorials china’s troubled media bogus trend-spotting: suicide spates 4 things we overlook about tiananmen meeting the press china hang-up relaunch getting “educated” on xia yeliang… video: behind china’s college military training will zhou stay or will he go? the hard long slog check out “living with dead hearts” balance vs. “balance” the non-negotiable “ps” unquestionable truths the absurdity of a live broadcast execution the gaokao highway to hell southern weekend’s stand: what it is and what it isn’t cadres and evangelists sarfting forrest gump desensitized in china foreign journalists in chinese state media trouble at foxconn? quick! to the bandwagon! a look back at hu jintao in his own words some thoughts on china’s countryside is the pla up for a war? check out the eo podcast video from japanese embassy protests on beijing’s anti-japan protests behind the great oz’s curtain assigning blame for a hard landing corruption: the small potatoes yet another brilliant anti-corruption campaign china’s happiest day, hong kong’s dark cloud the latest game-changing chinese innovation liang fan’s reverence for the chinese national flag the greater significance of the forced abortion photo what we can learn from china’s soccer corruption a curious sense of justice foxconn: a very quiet riot one (very tiny) reason to be thankful for china’s censorship foreigners in china: weibo vs. reality china’s bash foreigner free-for-all categories business (4) chinese culture (28) economics (12) education (4) environment (3) logistics (3) media (27) military (2) politics (61) religion (5) uncategorized (5) email subscription enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. join 484 other followers advertisements i have no idea what’s going to happen in china and neither do you posted: march 9, 2015 in politics tags: arthur kroeber , communist party , david shambaugh 14 by now, most china watchers have probably seen this piece by david shambaugh cogently arguing that “the endgame of communist rule in china has begun.” if you want to see an equally cogent argument lead to a very different conclusion, you can see arthur kroeber’s piece from december about how xi jinping and his governing style are here to stay. both make for interesting reading, as do the countless other pundits who’ve made similar arguments on both sides of the ccp endurance question over the years. if they hadn’t wrapped all their interesting points together into a grand thesis predicting the future of the communist party, they would have been quite insightful. however, they did make rather firm conclusions, and that’s rather pointless. that’s because… we really have no idea what’s going on in china right now in november 2011, the telegraph ran an exclusive report on a self-immolation that had happened in tiananmen square three weeks earlier. the paper only learned of it when they received a photo from a british tourist who’d been there and was surprised he hadn’t yet seen anything about it in the news. despite the hundreds of people who’d been present snapping their own photos, no record of the incident could be found anywhere in chinese media, weibo, or anywhere else. it happened in perhaps the most trafficked and photographed place in china, it was during the heyday of weibo, and it was walking distance from where hundreds of foreign correspondents were stationed. and yet, we just narrowly missed never hearing about it at all. it makes you wonder how many important things we are missing completely in china. hundreds of the best foreign correspondents in the world are stationed in china (the lion’s share based in beijing, with most of the rest in shanghai), but unfortunately they have no hope of collectively reporting more than a very small fraction of the important things happening in the country every day. they’re a few hundred covering 1.35 billion people living across 3.7 million square miles. there are of course chinese journalists and netizens finding things out, but self-censorship and multiple levels of government censorship stop a lot of that from ever reaching the outside world’s comprehension. and a lot of the trends that could influence the ccp’s survival are simply unknowable. how stable is the financial system? how significant are the hundreds of thousands of annual “mass incidents?” what exactly is going on behind closed doors at zhongnanhai? how much is corruption affecting the military’s capability and loyalties? is there any threat of some public grievance gaining collective appeal among different social groups? what questions are we not even thinking to ask? the communist party is in a better position than anyone to know these things, but even it’s probably clueless on a lot of these big questions. things get garbled through five levels of government bureaucracy while hundreds of thousands of personal interests obscure things for their own purposes before they have any hope of being digested accurately. despite the enormous strides in reporting and communication, we’re still very much in the dark. which is why… we have even less hope of possibly knowing what will happen in the future after bo xilai’s sensational purge in 2012, many china-watchers (myself included) presumed that the incoming politburo standing committee would take a turn toward the more liberal wing of the ccp. then ling jihua’s son got in a ferrari accident and new york times exposed wen jiabao’s family wealth, making a mockery of any predictions on the pbsc’s composition. totally unforeseen events (that we still don’t fully understand) changed everything, which should itself have been foreseeable. that was just one small arena of chinese politics. imagine the present day stable of china pundits being transported back to 1986 and trying to predict what would happen over the next five years (then repeat that exercise with 1976, 1966, 1956 and 1946). let’s even help them out a bit and presume they have access to all the information the ccp did. does anyone honestly believe any of them could have predicted anything resembling what actually unfolded? if not, why should we think they’re any more capable today? political winds can shift on a dime in china, influenced by completely unforeseeable variables. the tiananmen movement, for instance, was the result of dozens of different incidents and trends that came together in a perfect storm. alter any one of those variables slightly, and things could have turned out very differently. you can conscientiously gather every bit of information available, every apparent trend and make a conclusion about where china is headed. then something will almost certainly happen tomorrow that rips your thesis to shreds. perhaps either shambaugh’s or kroeber’s prediction will ultimately be proven “correct,” but that doesn’t mean it was a good prediction. if someone is tasked with predicting a coin toss, they could analyze the wind, the person tossing, the texture of the ground, and all sorts of other random variables. but whatever system of analysis they come up with will be utterly lacking. perhaps someday a computer system will be able to meaningfully sort these variables, but it’s beyond any human’s capabilities. so even if the coin is tossed and their prediction is correct, that doesn’t make them a proficient coin toss analyst. crass as the analogy may be, ccp soothsaying is similarly an exercise in futility that’s made fools of many “experts.” but prediction sells. it’s harder to get media outlets to give you op-ed space or air time if you just say “things are complicated and we don’t really know what’s going to happen.” making a bold prediction gets n

URL analysis for sinostand.com

https://sinostand.com/2012/11/21/desensitized-in-china/
https://sinostand.com/tag/mark-zuckerberg/
https://sinostand.com/2014/03/15/meeting-the-press/
https://sinostand.com/2012/09/27/is-the-pla-up-for-a-war/
https://sinostand.com/category/logistics/
https://sinostand.com/tag/china/
https://sinostand.com/2014/05/27/4-things-we-overlook-about-tiananmen/
https://sinostand.com/2012/06/15/what-we-can-learn-from-chinas-soccer-corruption/
https://sinostand.com/2012/08/25/corruption-the-small-potatoes/
https://sinostand.com/2012/09/11/behind-the-great-ozs-curtain/
https://sinostand.com/2013/04/04/unquestionable-truths/
https://sinostand.com/2012/10/19/a-look-back-at-hu-jintao-in-his-own-words/
https://sinostand.com/2012/09/15/on-beijings-anti-japan-protests/
https://sinostand.com/2013/03/01/the-absurdity-of-a-live-broadcast-execution/
https://sinostand.com/2012/07/16/chinas-happiest-day-hong-kongs-dark-cloud/
telegraph.co.uk
blogs.telegraph.co.uk

Whois Information

Whois is a protocol that is access to registering information. You can reach when the website was registered, when it will be expire, what is contact details of the site with the following informations. In a nutshell, it includes these informations;

Domain Name: SINOSTAND.COM
Registry Domain ID: 1628654084_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN
Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.wildwestdomains.com
Registrar URL: http://www.wildwestdomains.com
Updated Date: 2017-11-08T17:16:53Z
Creation Date: 2010-12-04T03:54:39Z
Registry Expiry Date: 2018-12-04T03:54:39Z
Registrar: Wild West Domains, LLC
Registrar IANA ID: 440
Registrar Abuse Contact Email: [email protected]
Registrar Abuse Contact Phone: 480-624-2505
Domain Status: clientDeleteProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientDeleteProhibited
Domain Status: clientRenewProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientRenewProhibited
Domain Status: clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited
Domain Status: clientUpdateProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientUpdateProhibited
Name Server: NS1.WORDPRESS.COM
Name Server: NS2.WORDPRESS.COM
DNSSEC: unsigned
URL of the ICANN Whois Inaccuracy Complaint Form: https://www.icann.org/wicf/
>>> Last update of whois database: 2018-08-15T22:15:26Z <<<

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view the registrar's reported date of expiration for this registration.

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The Registry database contains ONLY .COM, .NET, .EDU domains and
Registrars.

  REGISTRAR Wild West Domains, LLC

SERVERS

  SERVER com.whois-servers.net

  ARGS domain =sinostand.com

  PORT 43

  TYPE domain

DOMAIN

  NAME sinostand.com

  CHANGED 2017-11-08

  CREATED 2010-12-04

STATUS
clientDeleteProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientDeleteProhibited
clientRenewProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientRenewProhibited
clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited
clientUpdateProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientUpdateProhibited

NSERVER

  NS1.WORDPRESS.COM 198.181.116.9

  NS2.WORDPRESS.COM 198.181.117.9

  REGISTERED yes

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